VOA常速英语2013--2014年考验伊朗的改变

2014 Will Test Changes in Iran 2014年考验伊朗的改变

LONDON — The year 2013 saw major changes for Iran, with the election of a  more moderate president and agreement with the international community to limit its nuclear  program. But experts say the real test for the extent of the changes will come in 2014, when Iran will be called on to make additional, more permanent, policy changes.

It was a remarkable 1 moment in November when the Iranian foreign minister and his counterparts from six world powers reached a preliminary agreement to limit Iran’s  nuclear program and to ease economic sanctions.  11月份伊朗外长和来自六个大国的外长们达成初步协议，限制伊朗的核项目，并放松经济制裁，这是个了不起的时刻。

It capped a year of dramatic change in Iran.

这一时刻结束了伊朗一年来的剧烈变动。

Just a year ago, then President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad was still engaging in his harsh rhetoric 2 against the West and refusing to hold substantive 3 talks on the nuclear  program, as mismanagement and economic sanctions crippled Iran’s economy.

就在一年前，时任总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德还在用严厉的言辞对付西方，拒绝就核项目进行实质性会谈，同时管理不当和经济制裁摧残了伊朗的经济。

Then, in June, Iranian voters elected a relative moderate, Hassan Rouhani, to replace him.  And just as significantly, Iran’s Supreme 4 Leader, the Ayatollah Ali  Khamenei, publicly backed Rouhani's new approach.

6月份，伊朗选民们选出相对温和的哈桑·鲁哈尼来代替内贾德，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊公开支持鲁哈尼的新政策，这一点意义重大。

All that culminated 5 in the nuclear accord in Geneva in November.    11月份双方在日内瓦达成了核协议。

“Well, I do see it as a dramatic difference, but I caution that we shouldn’t over-estimate what’s going on,” said retired 6 U.S. diplomat 7 Richard LeBaron, now at the  Atlantic Council. "I think 2014 will be the key year in determining whether Iran is on a strategic change of course. But so far, I think it’s a tactical move.”

“我确实认为有了相当大的不同，但要小心，我们不应该过高评价”，目前在大西洋理事会就职的美国退休外交官Richard LeBaron说，“我想2014年是关键的一年，将决定伊朗是否走上战略 性改变的道路，但到目前为止，我觉得这是一个战术举动。”

LeBaron predicts a resumption of the internal struggle between hardliners and moderates, as Iran is called on to make more concessions 8 to reach a long-term nuclear  accord.

LeBaron预测国内强硬派和保守派将继续进行内斗，同时伊朗呼吁做出更多让步以达成长期核协议。

At London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, Mark Fitzpatrick says the coming months will focus on negotiations 9, not talk of war.

在伦敦的国际战略研究所，马克·菲茨帕特里克说未来几个月将把重点放在协商而非战争上。

“If Iran’s nuclear program had not been at least capped, it was making progress that would have crossed Israel’s red lines, I think, by next summer, and we very  well could have had a military option being exercised,” Fitzpatrick said.

“如果伊朗的核项目还没达到控制，那么其进展将越过以色列的警戒线，我想到明年夏天，我们可能会采取军事手段。”

Fitzpatrick and LeBaron both doubt Iranian leaders’ assurances that they have no interest in building a nuclear weapon. The experts say officials likely want to  maintain the option for the future, while also getting sanctions eased to satisfy their people.

菲茨帕特里克和LeBaron都质疑伊朗领袖的无意制造核武器的保证，两位专家称可能想未来继续保有核武器的选择，同时为了满足人民使得制裁得到缓解。

Fitzpatrick says it’s a question of how many restrictions 10 Iran will accept, and how long it would take to develop a weapons if it decides to do so. “Will they accept  as long of a lead time as the United States would want, in order to feel comfortable?  That’s going to be the tricky 11 part in the discussions that are upcoming.”

菲茨帕特里克说问题是伊朗会接受多少限制，如果伊朗下了决心，需要多久能制造出武器。“他们是否能接受美国希望的期限，这将是未来协商中很棘手的部分。”

Those talks have a six-month deadline that many experts say will be difficult to meet. Even incremental 12 progress could ease concerns in the Middle East and in the West  and might even open the possibility of cooperation on other issues, particularly Syria. But deadlock 13 would likely recreate the tensions of recent years. 这些协商有6个月的最后期限，许多专家认为很难实现。即使是循序渐进的进展也会缓解中东和西方的担心，甚至使得其他问题上的合作成为可能，尤其是叙利亚问题。但未来几年僵局可能会 还会制造紧张局面。